Retirement
How Long Will $1 Million Last in Retirement?
$1 million lasts about 25 years if you withdraw $40,000 a year and earn nothing above inflation, and roughly 34 years if your portfolio earns 2% a year after inflation. At a $50,000 withdrawal it lasts about 25 years at a 2% real return and about 37 years at 4%. Spend $80,000 or more a year and most portfolios run dry in 12 to 21 years, while a $40,000 withdrawal with a 4% or 6% real return can last well beyond 60 years.
The table below does the math for you, and the retirement withdrawal calculator runs it with your own numbers. Social Security, how your investments are mixed and the order your returns arrive in all change the answer, and each one is covered further down.
How Long $1 Million Lasts: The Quick Table
Assumptions: you withdraw the amount at the start of each year, you raise it every year with inflation so your buying power stays the same, and the portfolio earns the "real" return shown (the return after inflation). Taxes are not included, so treat the withdrawal as your pre-tax draw.
| Annual withdrawal | Withdrawal rate | 2% real return | 4% real return | 6% real return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $40,000 | 4% | 34 years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
| $50,000 | 5% | 25 years | 37 years | 60+ years |
| $60,000 | 6% | 20 years | 26 years | 49 years |
| $80,000 | 8% | 14 years | 17 years | 21 years |
| $100,000 | 10% | 11 years | 12 years | 14 years |
For context, with a 0% real return (cash that just keeps pace with inflation) the answer is simple division: $1,000,000 divided by $40,000 is 25 years, and divided by $100,000 is 10 years.
What "real return" means in practice: a balanced portfolio that earns 6.5% a year in a world with 2.5% inflation has a real return of roughly 4%. A 2% real return is a cautious assumption, close to what a bond-heavy portfolio might earn. A 6% real return is close to the long-run history of a stock-heavy portfolio, which comes with much bigger swings along the way.
What About $500,000 or $2 Million?
The math scales. A $500,000 portfolio behaves exactly like $1 million with double the withdrawal, and $2 million behaves like $1 million with half the withdrawal. Same assumptions as above:
| Portfolio | Annual withdrawal | 2% real | 4% real | 6% real |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $500,000 | $20,000 | 34 years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
| $500,000 | $30,000 | 20 years | 26 years | 49 years |
| $500,000 | $40,000 | 14 years | 17 years | 21 years |
| $500,000 | $50,000 | 11 years | 12 years | 14 years |
| $2,000,000 | $60,000 | 54 years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
| $2,000,000 | $80,000 | 34 years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
| $2,000,000 | $100,000 | 25 years | 37 years | 60+ years |
The pattern to remember: the withdrawal rate (withdrawal divided by portfolio) drives the result far more than the dollar amount. A 4% withdrawal rate holds up across all three portfolio sizes. At 8% or higher, even good returns buy you only about 15 to 20 years.
The 4% Rule and What the Latest Research Says
The 4% rule comes from financial planner William Bengen's 1994 study in the Journal of Financial Planning. He tested every 30-year retirement starting from 1926 onward with a stock and bond mix and found that a first-year withdrawal of 4% of the starting balance, raised each year for inflation, survived every historical period, including the Great Depression and the 1970s. On $1 million, that is $40,000 in year one.
Two current takes are worth knowing:
- Bengen now says 4.7%. In his 2025 book A Richer Retirement, he raised his baseline safe rate for a 30-year retirement to 4.7%, mostly because he tested a more diversified portfolio (Advisor Perspectives). On $1 million that is $47,000 in year one.
- Morningstar says 3.9% for 2026 retirees. Morningstar's latest State of Retirement Income research puts the highest safe starting rate at 3.9%, for fixed inflation-adjusted spending over 30 years with a 90% chance of money left at the end (Morningstar). On $1 million that is $39,000. Morningstar also finds that retirees who accept some ups and downs in their spending can start higher.
So the research lands in a range of about $39,000 to $47,000 a year from $1 million for a 30-year retirement. That lines up with the table: a $40,000 withdrawal lasts 34 years even at a modest 2% real return.
Social Security Changes the Answer a Lot
Most retirees do not live on their portfolio alone. Social Security covers part of the bill, which shrinks what the portfolio has to provide.
The Social Security Administration estimates the average retirement benefit at $2,071 a month in January 2026, or about $24,852 a year (SSA). Benefits rise with inflation each year; the 2027 cost-of-living adjustment is 3.6%.
Worked example. A retiree with $1 million wants to spend $60,000 a year in today's dollars and earns a 4% real return.
- Without Social Security: the portfolio funds all $60,000 and lasts about 26 years.
- With an average benefit of $24,852: the portfolio only needs to fund $35,148 (a 3.5% withdrawal rate). At a 4% real return, the balance never runs out.
Delaying Social Security makes the benefit bigger. Each year you wait past full retirement age, up to 70, adds 8% to your benefit for life. If you can bridge the gap from savings, a bigger guaranteed check later reduces how hard your portfolio has to work for the rest of your life. Our Social Security calculator estimates your benefit at different claiming ages.
Sequence Risk: Why the Order of Returns Matters
Averages hide a trap. Two retirees can earn the same average return and get very different outcomes, purely because of when the bad years land. Losses early in retirement hurt more, because you are selling investments to fund withdrawals while prices are down, and those shares are not there for the recovery.
Worked example. Two retirees each start with $1 million and withdraw $50,000 a year, raised for inflation. Both earn a 6% real return in 28 of their 30 years and lose 20% and then 10% in the other two.
| Scenario | Bad years | Result after 30 years |
|---|---|---|
| Retiree A | Years 1 and 2 | Runs out of money in year 25 |
| Retiree B | Years 29 and 30 | About $984,000 left |
Same returns, same spending, a difference of nearly $1 million. That is sequence risk. Common ways to manage it:
- Keep one to three years of spending in cash or short-term bonds so you are not forced to sell stocks after a crash.
- Be flexible. Skipping the inflation raise, or trimming spending by 5% to 10% after a bad year, does a lot of the work.
- Use guardrails. Set an upper and lower withdrawal rate and adjust spending when you cross one.
- Delay Social Security so more of your later income is guaranteed.
How to Make $1 Million Last Longer
- Keep your starting withdrawal near 4%. From the table, moving from a 4% to a 6% withdrawal rate cuts the life of the money from 34 years to 20 at a 2% real return, and from more than 60 years to 26 at a 4% real return.
- Hold enough stocks. A portfolio that is all cash or short-term bonds may only keep up with inflation, which leaves you with the 0% column: 25 years at $40,000.
- Watch fees and taxes. A 1% annual fee comes straight out of your real return, and moving from 4% to 3% shortens how long the money lasts.
- Plan for healthcare before 65. Retiring before Medicare means paying for private coverage out of the same pot.
- Revisit the plan each year. A plan built for a 30-year retirement should be checked against your actual balance, not left on autopilot.
For the full picture of how much you need to save in the first place, see How Much Do I Need to Retire in 2026? If you plan to retire early, the FIRE calculator handles longer time horizons.
Enter your balance, spending and return to see how many years your savings last.
Open the Retirement Withdrawal CalculatorFrequently asked questions
How long will $1 million last if I spend $50,000 a year?
About 25 years with a 2% return after inflation, about 37 years with a 4% real return, and more than 60 years with a 6% real return. This assumes you raise the withdrawal each year for inflation and ignores taxes.
Can I retire on $1 million at 60?
Many people can. The 4% rule suggests about $40,000 a year from $1 million, and Morningstar's latest research puts the safe starting rate for 2026 retirees at 3.9%, or $39,000. Add Social Security, which averaged about $2,071 a month in January 2026, and many retirees have $60,000 or more of total income. The bigger question at 60 is how you will pay for health insurance until Medicare starts at 65.
How much monthly income does $1 million generate?
At a 4% withdrawal rate, about $3,333 a month before taxes, raised each year for inflation. At Morningstar's 3.9% rate it is about $3,250 a month, and at Bengen's updated 4.7% it is about $3,917 a month.
Is the 4% rule still valid in 2026?
It is still a reasonable starting point. Bengen, who created it, now puts the figure at 4.7% for a diversified portfolio, while Morningstar puts it at 3.9% for 2026 retirees who want fixed inflation-adjusted spending. Both assume a 30-year retirement, so retiring earlier calls for a lower rate.
What is sequence of returns risk?
It is the risk that poor returns arrive early in retirement, when you are withdrawing money from a shrinking balance. Two retirees with the same average return can end up far apart. In our example, losses in years 1 and 2 drain a $1 million portfolio by year 25, while the same losses in years 29 and 30 leave about $984,000.
How long will $2 million last in retirement?
At $80,000 a year, about 34 years with a 2% real return and more than 60 years at 4% or higher. At $100,000 a year, about 25 years at a 2% real return and 37 years at 4%.